No Threat of New War with Russia, At least Yet!

Nona Suvarian, Tbilisi

The sound of shootings and explosions are still heard in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone. News agencies are reporting everyday that peaceful population is being pressured from many fronts and are living in fear. It is the locals who suffer the most, not only from the reality on the ground but  there are some experts who support the idea that Georgia might get involved in a yet a new war. However, Paata Zakareishvili, political scientist, does not share the idea and considers that such kinds of statements have been made with certain objectives in mind.

Pavel Felgengauer, military expert and special reporter of the “Novaia Gazeta”, stated in one of his interviews that military operations might be again commenced.

“Rhetoric of Anatoly Serdiukov, Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister and his deputy Grigory Karasin sounds like militarism and threatening. Russian-Georgian war might be renewed in April of 2009. Officials of Russian political circle confirmed this information in the conversation with me,” said Pavel Felgengauer in his exclusive interview with Georgian TV Company “Imedi”. He added that Russia has no intentions of launching a new war for now as the winter is approaching. In addition, he explains how the “Russian side considered that the regime of Mikheil Saakashvili was totally defeated when he signed the cease fire.”

Georgian MP Paata Davitaia also speaks about possible new military aggression from Russia. He stated that “situation might be much worse in Georgia than it was with the August 2008 war.”

Paata Zakareishvili, a Georgian political scientist states that there are no signs of new military operation at this stage. However, he added that the on-going situation in conflict zone is nothing new. Similar activities were always going on in the region in recent years and are to be expected. The political scientist said that “we should have information about re-launched military operations at least one month earlier.” Many facts should coincide with other events, such as troop movements and the deployment of an army, an increase in military trainings, etc. Today nothing that would show such an indication has been detected. 

Paata Zakareishvili: “If the war will start in spring of 2009 we should learn about it at least one month earlier. On July 3 2008 it was quite clear that Russian-Georgian war would start on August 7 because since July 3 unmanageable processes started and it led us to the war. Let’s say the war will start on May 15, we should have information about it as early as April 15.”

Political scientist added that “the tensing the situation is profitable for both sides as they share the blame. The Russian side wants to blame Georgians for tensing the situation and on the other hand, the Georgian side wants to blame Russia of it inability control the situation. However, in fact Georgia will not benefit from the escalated situation. In this case Ossetian and Abkhazian people will even more be separated than they are now, which will have even more horrible results for the future.”

Paata Zakareishvili pointed out that both sides are keen on pointing fingers at each other and this situation has been in process for many years already.

“Unfortunately, Georgia did its best to split Georgian and Abkhazian, Georgian and Ossetian societies from one another. It was negative policy that led us to the war in August.  Russians took advantage of our mistakes because military operations were not going-on in their territory but on ours. Russians are reinforcing their positions. So I cannot understand how we, as Georgians, can benefit from yet another war.”

“Georgian side wants Georgians to leave the Gali district, Abkhazia. Our authority does not do anything that will support local residents staying there. Looking back, the situation that exists started in 2007 and the Georgian side takes advantage of the uncontrolled situation that was created by illegal activities of both the Abkhazians and Russians. Georgian authority tries to demonstrate to the west that Russia and Abkahzia are bad and Georgia is good. Maybe we will win the informational war but what is more important for us to lose informational war or to gain Abkhazian and Ossetian into the fold?”

The fact that Europe does not support Georgia any longer, as it happened at the beginning of the war is somewhat threatening for one part of society. Under such circumstances, Russia has been given the possibility of acting with a free hand. However, Paata Zakareishvili thinks that pragmatic European states cannot be demanded to be emotional in their positions.

Each country acts according to their defined set of defined interests. They can see that Georgia is not a democratic country and we are incapable of holding free and democratic elections. Currently authoritative exists in Georgia. Naturally, why should they support the country that neglects to live up to European values when the result might result in creating problems with these countries with the Russian Federation? If Georgia was actually trying to build democracy, then Europeans should be more interesting in caring about what problems it faces as a fledgling democratic state. However, the EU is not a charity organization.”

The expert also stated that further activities of Russia depend on Georgian society. “If we have stable society, Russia will not cause us any harm.”