Prognosis of US Intelligence: “In 2010 Bloodshed in South Caucasus Will Be Main Threat for the EU”

Aleksi Bezhanishvili

Last week, two high-ranking officials in the USA made interesting statements about Georgia at various times and on various topics. Director of the US Intelligence stated that Georgia is a threat for Europe. Assistant to the US State Secretary Philip Croul stated that anti-rocket defense elements shall be located in the Black Sea area. 

Director of the US Intelligence Dennis Blair stated that Bosnia and Georgia threat European security. He thinks attempts to resolve conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh might result into bloodshed in the Caucasus.

European online outlet www.euobserver.com  reported that head of the US Intelligence stated about it in his report to Special Intelligence Committee of the Senate in Washington.

In addition to that, according to Blair, main reason for the instability in Europe is Serbian enclaves and separatist tendencies in Kosovo, Balkan and more precisely in Bosnia. Although, events in Balkan cannot result into large-scale bloodshed and formal collapse of the state, ethnic factor will play main role in political processes in the region.

“Russian-Georgian frozen conflicts about Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict about Nagorno-Karabakh might end in bloodshed,” said Denis Blair. He thinks, unsettled Caucasian conflicts might breed new hot spots in Eurasian region. Increase of Russian military forces in separatist regions of Georgia and reinforcement of Russian economical links with Abkhazia and South Ossetia increase the risk. All these might cause renovation of the armed conflict.

“I am concerned about the fact that Russia views its relationship with its neighbors from post-soviet space as a game started on zero sums and President Medvedev calls former soviet republics to be zone of privileged interests of Russia,” said Blair.

Although, in the first years of Obama’s presidency US-Russian relations improved, Blair underlined his concern about the neighborhood of the EU.

“Russia continues to use its own army to obtain status of supreme state and demonstrates its force before neighbors. They speak about patrols of hard artillery, fleet missions beyond Russian territorial waters and about common military trainings,” said head of American Intelligence.

In parallel to it, debates about deployment of American anti-rocket systems in Eastern Europe still continue. Earlier, administration of the president Obama refused to place systems in Poland and Czech Republic which was lobbed by the supporters of the previous president George Bush. However, soon it was cleared up that US has never refused to place anti-rocket systems in this region. New strategy was announced which states that anti-rocket systems shall be placed in the Black Sea Area. After Russian-Georgian War, new position of the USA caused serious concern of the political elite of Russia.

States of Eastern Europe are ready to give their territories to the US anti-rocket systems. On January 4, Washington received official notification from Bucharest on the placement of their systems in Romania. President of Romania Traian Basescu stated that Supreme Defense Council of Romania appreciated the proposal of the USA to place anti-rocket systems in their territory. Basescu added that systems will not take aim at Russia.

According to Philip Croul, anti-rocket defense elements, which are planned to be placed in Romania, will be located in the Black Sea area.

More precisely, the system will be located on the land and later they will be located in the sea too. Croul warned Russia that preventive rockets SM-3 will not take aim at Russia but at Iran only.

Experts state that instable Caucasian region worries US and Europe more and more. In addition to the frozen conflicts of the South Caucasus rebel nations became more active in the north Caucasus too. Russia loses its control over rebel regions – Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushistan . There is threat that armed conflicts might be spread in the entire north Caucasus. In addition to that, US Intelligence predicts bloodshed in the south Caucasus that means entire Caucasus might be involved in armed conflict.

Bearing the above in mind, Georgia has only one way out – not to be provoked by the northern neighbor. One more armed conflict shall be a total collapse for the country. Unfortunately, in similar situation, the action of the government of Georgia cannot be predicted because we still hear militarist rhetoric from the president and other governmental officials. In parallel to it, we cannot see any serious initiatives of peaceful resolution of the conflicts.