Two Social Polls on One Topic with Different Findings

Mariam Khurtsidze

Different findings of the social polls carried out by the International Republic Institute (IRI) and the Institute of Social Studies and Analysis (ISSA) caused different reaction of the Georgian society. Both organizations published the poll findings almost simultaneously in one week.

According to the IRI polls, the question – which political party will you vote for if the parliamentary elections are scheduled next week? – was answered with 42% in support of the National Movement; 18 % for Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Party, 8% for the Christian Democrats and 3 % for the Labor Party.

According to the ISSA polls, the same question had the following results: 36% for the National Movement, 32% for Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Party, 4, 3% for the Christian Democrats, 1,6% for the Labor Party and 1, 5 % for the Free Democrats.

The results of the IRI’s poll on the general trust to the President Mikheil Saakashvili caused the most noise. IRI’s question –what do you think about the Georgian President? received the following answers: 74% of respondents are positive about the Georgian President; 20% are negative and 6% refused to answer the question.

The published findings caused serious discussion in the society. Humanrights.ge is pleased to publish evaluations of several experts who tried to explain why the findings of two polls are different.

Political scientist Soso Tsiskarishvili said the survey of the ISSA is a pleasant exception of the surveys of the last few years because of its transparency. He said it is significant that the head of the ISSA Iago Kachkachishvili presented the methodology of their survey and clarified the poll findings during the presentation.

“In all other cases the client is hidden behind the company and nobody knows who works on the issues though we must receive clear clarifications from the pollsters before unpleasant rumors are spread about their findings,” said Soso Tsiskarishvili and added: “When the author of the survey does not present his findings and make clarifications about them, does not answer the questions of his/her colleagues, it is useless to lose time on the analyze of similar poll findings.”

Tsiskarishvili thinks it is important how the anonymity of the respondents was protected when the IRI asked them opinions about the Georgian President. As for the ISSA, they clarified how much they worked on the confidentiality of the respondents.

Expert Gia Khukhashvili thinks the IRI poll findings, which were sent to the media sources by unidentified people, were not officially proved; thus, nobody took responsibility on the correctness of the poll findings. So, Khukhashvili refrains from asking questions to the IRI. “The society heard only interpretations of the poll findings from the TV-Company Imedi. We have not heard official statements from the IRI.”

Gia Khukhashvili, expert: “As for the general content of the polls, both objective and subjective factors can impact the results. For example, the fact that the IRI polls were conducted four days after Bidzina Ivanishvili appeared in Georgian politics can be assumed as objective factor. The ISSA carried out the polls a bit later when many events occurred in the politics. It could have caused some differences.

I have some questions to the organization who publishes unconfirmed information instead the IRI itself. Bidzina Ivanishvili’s political party does not exist yet. Consequently, it is significant whether we speak about his personality or his party. So, the question itself was controversial because candidate of the National Movement received 32 % and Ivanishvili – 27 % when respondents answered the question – which candidate will you vote for if presidential elections were held tomorrow?  As for the second question concerning the parliamentary elections, the National Movement gained 42% and Ivanishvili’s planned party -18%. Thus, I have a logic question: how can 27% of respondents vote for Ivanishvili’s presidency but only 18% supported his planned party. Relatively, the figures are very illogical.”

Executive director of the Human Rights Center Ucha Nanuashvili doubts about the IRI findings because its activities are politically motivated.

Ucha Nanuashvili, the Human Rights Center: “Generally, the IRI is a very suspicious organization. It is not a first occasion when their findings are far from Georgian reality; so, I doubt the IRI implements the government’s instructions. Their vague poll findings have been published in a scandalous manner for many years already.

According to my information, the IRI is connected with a famous member of the US Republic Party John McCain who is known for his particularly “warm” relations with the government of Georgia. So, I doubt about trustworthy of their polls. Unfortunately, it was a political order and the organization implemented it. The society does not know who represents the organization in Georgia and who is responsible for their poll findings. We do not even know the methodology of their surveys.”

Political scientist Ramaz Sakvarelidze said it is difficult to find difference between two polls because the IRI’s poll findings were reported by the Georgian media beyond general context. “It is significant to know how the questions were formulated; what their context was and how they were presented to the respondent. Many factors are important in order to make the respondent sincere in his answer. Serious polls require preliminary preparation works. ISSA carried out special procedures in order to encourage respondents to sincerely respond to their questions. Similar details are not highlighted in the IRI poll reports. I wonder who stands behind the IRI… unless the fear of the government is defeated, the poll loses importance.”